In states where affirmative action programs have been eliminated, the numbers of students from historically underrepresented groups in medical school have plunged dramatically. Substantial score differences between Whites and students of color lead to an underepresentation of minorities in medical school when MCAT scores play a large role in admissions decisions (see table). Strict use of the MCAT disadvantages students of color and harms communities of color While only 4% of the variation in the ratings of clinical competence were related to MCAT scores, 14% could be explained by psycho-social measures.3 While no one factor contributes greatly to predicting success, test scores are clearly only weak predictors whose value decreases as students progress through training. One research study showed that as a student progresses through medical school the power of the pre-admission interview ratings to predict medical school grade point average (GPA) generally increases over time while the power of MCAT scores decreases.2 Another study considered the effects of MCAT scores and “non-cognitive” measures on basic science grades and clinical competence in medical school. MCAT scores prove to be an even weaker indicator of performance during clinical training (the third and fourth years of medical school). Several studies confirm that the predictive ability of the MCAT is confined to the basic science portion of the medical school curriculum, explaining only 9-16% of the variance, or difference, in grades during the first two years. While the MCAT’s developer claims the exam should play a central part in forecasting success in medical school, the predictive value of the test is in fact quite small. William McGaghie writes in the journal Academic Medicine: “No physician answers pages of multiple-choice questions when he or she practices clinical medicine…Grades predict grades, test scores predict test score, ratings predict ratings, but attempts to demonstrate scientific convergence among such indicators of professional competence have not been successful.”1 The MCAT does a poor job of predicting success in medicalĪccording to the AAMC, the MCAT is designed to “assess mastery of basic concepts in biology, chemistry, and physics facility with scientific problem solving and critical thinking and writing skills.” According to several independent researchers however, the skills the MCAT tests relate most closely to the first two years of medical school classroom work but have little relevance in predicting success during clinical training or actual practice as a physician.
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